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Another indyref2 Scottish Referendum 2?

Legislation which could pave the way for a new Scottish independence referendum has been tabled at Holyrood.

The Scottish government wants to put the question of independence to a new public vote in the second half of 2020.

 

Robert Burns wise in his youth, Rabbie Burns as he was known.

In 1707 Scotland and the Scots we’re bought and sold for English Gold or so say the words of Robert Burns. When, in reality the union had formed 54 years earlier with the formation of the Commonwealth between the two countries with the United Kingdom, the coming, into force 1 May 1707.     A Remarkable alliance by all accounts, on one side the English were concerned that the Scots would form or rekindle an old alliance with the French, turning against the English. England had become reliant on many Scots regiments to fight within the army of the then Commonwealth, the fear that these troops would change sides was a real and present danger. On the Scottish side they were heavily in debt following investment intended to create a great trading route between the Atlantic, and stretching across the Pacific. With every Scot, or those that could invest £5 invested in a new pioneering venture based in Panama. This failed impoverishing Scottish folk, hence the term coined by Robert Burns. Whilst the term had negative tones the intent was honourable, and of mutual benefit.  

How many times does your partner need to tell you they don’t love you before it sinks in.

Is Nicola Sturgeon obsessed with breaking the union with another Independence referendum?

I for one struggle with the rationale for the campaign to break 364 years of our union. It has worked very good for all parties involved. Her goal is leave a successful union whom they trade remarkably well with, in the hope of joining a failing over regulated union. Why is Nicola Sturgeon so intent on pursuing this course?   The other point is and one I really do not understand is why do elements within the Scots detest the English so? I was always disturbed when Andy Murray claimed during the world cup one year that he would support any team other than England!  In all honesty what have we done to deserve this ill feeling?   I personally would be sad to see the union break up. But, I don’t think I like the way we’re referred, I am coming to the conclusion they should forget a referendum, we should all just sit around the table and agree a sensible timetable for partition. A marriage is over when one  party keeps telling the other they don’t like them, keeps insisting on  a divorce.Keeps insisting on  a divorce.  Who are we to stand in their way? Today we have a real, and present danger that the Union will be shattered after a no deal Brexit. This I thought had reduced somewhat due to the SNP losing seats at the last election, but it hasn’t disappeared. With Parliament behaving the way it has, this could be the catalyst that forces the disintegration of the union, not Brexit. Is Nicola Sturgeon adding to an already mysterious rift between the English, and the Scots, pushing for separation through some personal ambition or historic vendetta? For sure Independence will bring no economic benefit to Scottish people.  

In many ways this should give time for reflection by those ardent Brexiteers. On one hand the European Union is not flavour of the age, but the historic union between the two great Kingdoms is, and a delicate path forward has to be found. The fragility of the UK is further at risk because the parliamentary shenanigans. Brexit has been mishandled.     In my opinion the UK is worthy of saving, and the EU is worthy of leaving. We have a long and powerful history together, fought in wars together. We have a shared language, a shared monarchy, and we have both benefited economically and will continue to do so once we are through this, what is a silly season in British Politics. But, in all honesty as an Englishman if the passion is so high then why stand in their way. It’s no fun being in the company of people who don’t like you, particularly when our taxes are keeping them afloat. I think the Scots have to realize if they keep insisting on leaving then we English should let them go.

Independence Referendum INDYREF2

Scottish secession will be won or lost based on ideology, emotion and a misguided dislike of all things English. This would be a travesty as undoubtedly we have prospered together. The EU presents a real and present danger to Scotland should they get their hands on this culturally rich kingdom. However, Scotland could well be a bystander in the success of Great Britain and those that remain in the United Kingdom.   

In the Union’s favour is of course the economic circumstances. Scotland’s economy is reliant on oil, during the last referendum for Scottish Independence the oil price hovered around $120 per barrel, looking poised to accelerate northward, today we have $60 approx. The economic situation is a far cry from 2014. Even 2014 the economic well-being of Scotland was far from assured. Today it would make no sense at all, particularly when you look to the Eurozone and their lackluster growth. For sure Scotland would need to participate in the Euro and the eurozone has been a straight jacket to many EU economies.  

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Would the European Union benefit from Scotland as a member. Or would it just be another Greece.

Let’s be clear for Scotland to be a success austerity would need to bite more severely than it has. Taxes would have to rise and public spending would need to be cut. The Remaining UK tax payers subsidize Scotland to the tune of £1000 per head per year.     

The EU have made clear Scotland will leave the EU when the UK leaves the EU. Scotland would have to join the EU by taking its place in the queue. Membership is not at all assured. Spain will most certainly veto membership fearing a backlash from Catalonia.  Although, in 2017 Spain has said they would not veto Scotland joining it is generally felt that that was an enforced political posturing. To detract from the emotional passion to pull away from England, there are several factors to consider:      

  • The Scottish English border would be a headache for the EU. 
  • Scotland’s exports to England and Wales are today four times larger than they export to the EU.
  • Scottish businessmen and women will most certainly migrate south causing a significant exodus of wealth and jobs from an already beleaguered nation.

The subsidy argument should not be dismissed, the EU would need to take up the slack when they are reeling from the loss from what is the equivalent of 20 EU states. The upshot is economic losses for Scotland from leaving the UK are probably greater with the UK out of the EU. Meanwhile, as the EU’s problems mount, and indeed the chances of an EU break-up rise, the wider case for Scotland to leave the UK looks weaker still. Suppose Scotland left the UK, believing that the EU would give it shelter, only to find that the EU had broken up. What a fate that would be. So, in contrast to the prevailing conventional wisdom, I believe that a Scottish secession from the UK is now much less likely than it was a few years ago. Click here   However, like the EU our trade is heavily skewed in favour of the European Union. They have tried hard for many years to undermine the City. Yet we are begged them to help Mrs May remain in some form. The Scottish issue is the same we gain nothing from Scotland we subsidize to the tune of £1000 per head. Yet we the English, and the Welsh seem to be fighting to keep the union together. Why?    

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