Let’s be clear.
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- In 1931 almost unanimously we were encouraged to stay with the gold standard. That is all but Keynes who encouraged us to leave. In September 1931 we broke with that standard. There were many cries of disaster. Immediately we were able to drop interest rates and this ushered in the fastest economic growth in British history.
- Another event was the joining of the ERM in 1992. Interest rates spiralled upwards. Unemployment rose sharply. On the face of it, it was easy to break the bank, not due to smart thinking, more because of the obvious political obsession of the EU project. The doom sayer predicted higher rates still and even higher unemployment. In reality the opposite was true.
- There are a number of reports that show with no deal the economic boost could be as much as 4% to the UK post Brexit. Some of these reports have been produced in Whitehall. Others by eminent economists such as Roger Bootle.
- MPs are failing to back May’s deal, and they should not back it! March 29th will be fine.
- The one I like the most “One day the house of cards will collapse” Professor Otmar Issing Chief Economist of the ECB and chastened prophet of the Euro project.
From 1970 to 1998 Germany’s average growth was 2.2%. Post Euro it has averaged 1%. The same period 70 -98 the current account surplus 0.8% of GDP, since 4.6%